Amazon founder Jeff Bezos once said that he’s often asked what’s going to change in the next ten years. “I almost never get the question: ‘What’s not going to change in the next ten years?’ ” he said. “And I submit to you that that second question is actually the more important of the two.” (Location 140)
A common storyline of history goes like this: Things get better, wealth increases, technology brings new efficiencies, and medicine saves lives. The quality of life goes up. But people’s expectations then rise by just as much, if not more, because those improvements also benefit other people around you, whose circumstances you anchor to. Happiness is little changed despite the world improving. (Location 430)
Investor Charlie Munger once noted that the world isn’t driven by greed; it’s driven by envy. (Location 438)
Rockefeller never yearned for Advil because he didn’t know it existed. But social media today adds a new element, in which everyone in the world can see the lifestyles—often inflated, faked, and airbrushed—of other people. (Location 508)
It’s become so much easier in recent decades to look around and say, “I may have more than I used to. But relative to that person over there, I don’t feel like I’m doing that great.” (Location 514)
The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt. —BERTRAND RUSSELL (Location 674)
A common trait of human behavior is the burning desire for certainty despite living in an uncertain and probabilistic world. (Location 686)
The core here is that people think they want an accurate view of the future, but what they really crave is certainty (Location 702)
Someone who tells you there’s a 60 percent chance of a recession happening doesn’t do much to ease that pain. They might be adding to it. But someone who says “There is going to be a recession this year” offers something to grab on to with both hands, something that feels like taking control of your future. (Location 704)
‘‘With a large enough sample, any outrageous thing is apt to happen,” Mosteller said. That’s part of why the world seems so crazy, and why once-in-a-lifetime events seem to happen regularly. (Location 723)
The odds of a bad news story—a fraud, a corruption, a disaster—occurring in your local town at any given moment is low. When you expand your attention nationally, the odds increase. When they expand globally, the odds of something terrible happening in any given moment are 100 percent. (Location 767)
The best story wins. Not the best idea, or the right idea, or the most rational idea. Just whoever tells a story that catches people’s attention and gets them to nod their heads is the one who tends to be rewarded. (Location 828)
Burns says that when writing a documentary script he will literally extend a sentence so that it lines up with a certain beat in the background music; he will cut a sentence to do the same. “Music is God,” he says. “It’s not just the icing on the cake. It’s the fudge, baked right in there.” (Location 885)
When a topic is complex, stories are like leverage. (Location 924)
Good stories create so much hidden opportunity among things you assume can’t be improved. (Location 948)
Some of the most important questions to ask yourself are: Who has the right answer, but I ignore because they’re inarticulate? And what do I believe is true but is actually just good marketing? (Location 956)
Jeff Bezos once said, “The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There’s something wrong with the way you are measuring it.” (Location 991)
Combining everything under one roof and making customers pick it from the shelves themselves was a way to make the economics of selling food work during a time when a quarter of the nation was unemployed. (Location 1454)
The key thing about evolution is that everything dies. Ninety-nine percent of species are already extinct; the rest will be eventually. (Location 1752)
A successful person purposely leaving gaps of free time on their schedule to do nothing in particular can feel inefficient. And it is, so not many people do it. (Location 1770)
Everything is sales also means that everyone is trying to craft an image of who they are. (Location 2141)
A good question to ask is, “Which of my current views would change if my incentives were different?” (Location 2262)
My theory is that length indicates the author has spent more time thinking about a topic than you have, which can be the only data point signaling they might have insights you don’t. It doesn’t mean their thinking is right. (Location 2494)
An effective rule of thumb doesn’t bypass complexity; it wraps things you don’t understand into things you do. (Location 2502)
But usually a better question is, “What have you experienced that I haven’t that makes you believe what you do? And would I think about the world like you do if I experienced what you have?” (Location 2606)
Who has the right answers but I ignore because they’re not articulate? (Location 2632)
Which of my current views would I disagree with if I were born in a different country or generation? (Location 2633)
What do I desperately want to be true so much that I think it’s true when it’s clearly not? (Location 2635)
What is a problem that I think applies only to other countries/industries/careers that will eventually hit me? (Location 2636)
What do I think is true but is actually just good marketing? (Location 2637)
What haven’t I experienced firsthand that leaves me naive about how something works? (Location 2638)
What looks unsustainable but is actually a new trend we haven’t accepted yet? (Location 2640)
Who do I think is smart but is actually full of it? (Location 2641)
Am I prepared to handle risks I can’t even envision? (Location 2642)
Which of my current views would change if my incentives were different? (Location 2643)
What are we ignoring today that will seem shockingly obvious in the future? (Location 2645)
What events very nearly happened that would have fundamentally changed the world I know if they had occurred? (Location 2646)
How much have things outside my control contributed to things I take credit for? (Location 2647)
How do I know if I’m being patient (a skill) or stubborn (a flaw)? (Location 2648)
Who do I look up to that is secretly miserable? (Location 2649)
What hassle am I trying to eliminate that’s actually an unavoidable cost of success? (Location 2650)
What crazy genius that I aspire to emulate is actually just crazy? (Location 2652)
What strong belief do I hold that’s most likely to change? (Location 2653)
